Race 7
Churchill Downs • Wednesday, November 11, 2026
• Post: 03:55 PM ET
6 Furlongs
Dirt
• Maiden Claiming $20,000
• $48,000
Low Confidence
#12 Cybersteel leads our model at 14% in this 6 Furlongs Dirt event — key edge: speed edge (facing pace pressure).
Top Selections
V1
EDGE
#12 Cybersteel
·
Model 14.4%
·
ML 9/5
· Implied
→
4
7
Uncle With Money
ⓘ
· ML 12/1
10.9%
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Estimated Finishing Order
V1
Estimated order based on win probability & speed figures
Finishing Order — Expanded Model
V2
Top pick holds
12
7
of 12 re-ranked
▲5
3
biggest riser
Rank shift v1 → v2
V1
V2
1
12
2
5
3
4
4
7
5
9
6
1
7
3
8
11
9
6
10
2
11
8
12
10
12
Cybersteel
3
High Status
▲5
4
Kilmaloo
5
Clever Heist
▼2
9
Glacier
7
Uncle With Money
▼2
1
Enoughisenough
▼1
2
Camping Siete
▲2
11
Centricity
▼1
6
Reach for Glory
▼1
8
Lawson's Legacy
10
Grand Opry
What each model weighs
V1
Speed 45%
Factors 25%
Trend 15%
ML 10%
Pace 5%
V2
Speed 35%
Pace 15%
Trend 12%
Factors 10%
Class 10%
DSLR 8%
★ 5%
ML 5%
+ Class move 10%
+ Layoff (DSLR) 8%
+ Standout efforts 5%
Same horses, different question: v1 asks who is fastest, v2 asks who is fastest
in this race shape — so a horse can move several places without its speed figure changing.
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🔥
💰
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🔥 Pace Meltdown — 8 early-speed horses projected to burn each other off; closers favored.
(8/9 early-speed horses)
#1
12
Cybersteel
Front-runner
13.1%
v2 model
54d DSLR
↑ Class rise
Last 2 speed figs
→ flat
·
hi 72 / lo 19
NOW
older →
19
Last race pace shape
Q1 · 124
→
Q2 · 125
→
Late · —
Why:
Speed figure (52.0) near field top.
Past Races ▾
Race
Trk
Dist
Style
Pace
Edge
Fin
Last
—
—
E
124–125–·
19
10
2 back
—
—
e
117–101–38
72
2
#2
3
High Status
Front-runner
11.1%
v2 model
▲ 5 vs v1
33d DSLR
↑ Class rise
★
Last 3 speed figs
▲ rising
·
hi 51 / lo 24
NOW
older →
38
Last race pace shape
Q1 · 150
→
Q2 · 149
→
Late · —
Why:
Speed figure (46.0) near field top.
Past Races ▾
Race
Trk
Dist
Style
Pace
Edge
Fin
Last
KEE
7.0f
e
150–149–·
28
7
2 back
★
CD
6.0f
eP
110–96–6
27
6
3 back
—
—
s
88–95–-31
24
6
#3
4
Kilmaloo
Front-runner
10.9%
v2 model
77d DSLR
↑ Class rise
Last 2 speed figs
→ flat
·
hi 52 / lo 50
NOW
older →
50
Last race pace shape
Q1 · 103
→
Q2 · 65
→
Late · 20
Why:
Speed figure (52.0) near field top.
Past Races ▾
Race
Trk
Dist
Style
Pace
Edge
Fin
Last
—
—
E
103–65–20
50
6
2 back
—
—
E
120–91–9
52
4
#4
5
Clever Heist
Front-runner
9.9%
v2 model
▼ 2 vs v1
35d DSLR
↑ Class rise
Last 2 speed figs
→ flat
·
hi 55 / lo 35
NOW
older →
55
Last race pace shape
Q1 · 103
→
Q2 · 89
→
Late · 13
Why:
Speed figure (52.0) near field top.
Past Races ▾
Race
Trk
Dist
Style
Pace
Edge
Fin
Last
—
—
E
103–89–13
55
9
2 back
—
—
u
96–91–-18
35
12
v2 layers pace fit, trend slope, class move, DSLR, and standout performances across multiple analytical dimensions.
Full Field
Rank
Pgm
Horse
ML
Win%
1
12
Cybersteel
9/5
14.4%
2
5
Clever Heist
8/1
14.0%
3
4
Kilmaloo
20/1
11.6%
4
7
Uncle With Money
12/1
10.9%
5
9
Glacier
6/1
10.0%
6
1
Enoughisenough
9/2
8.2%
7
3
High Status
20/1
7.4%
8
11
Centricity
FTS
30/1
5.6%
9
6
Reach for Glory
FTS
30/1
5.6%
10
2
Camping Siete
20/1
4.9%
11
8
Lawson's Legacy
10/1
4.4%
12
10
Grand Opry
8/1
2.9%
🏇 Exotic Wagering
Probabilities are model estimates. Ticket costs shown at $2 and $1 base.
Always verify pool minimums at your track or ADW.
Exacta
Trifecta
Superfecta
Straight
#12
→
#5
Cybersteel over Clever Heist
$2 base $2
$1 base $1
1 combo
Best value — model's top 2 in order
Box
#12
/
#5
Either order
$2 base $4
$1 base $2
2 combos
Covers both orders — more protection
Wheel (key on top)
#12
→
#5
/
#4
Cybersteel on top, two alternatives underneath
$2 base $4
$1 base $2
2 combos
Key on top — coverage if 2nd changes
Wheel (key underneath)
#5
/
#4
→
#12
Longshot on top — Cybersteel underneath
$2 base $4
$1 base $2
2 combos
Longshot play — top pick underneath for upside
Straight
#12
→
#5
→
#4
Top 3 in exact order
$2 base $2
$1 base $1
$0.50 base $0.50
1 combo
Highest payout — top 3 in exact model order
Box (3 horses)
#12
/
#5
/
#4
All 6 orders covered
$2 base $12
$1 base $6
$0.50 base $3
6 combos
All orders covered — solid coverage play
Part Wheel
#12
→
#5
/
#4
/
#7
→
#5
/
#4
/
#7
Key on top, 3 horses in 2nd & 3rd
$2 base $12
$1 base $6
$0.50 base $3
6 combos
Key on top, spread in 2nd & 3rd — 6 combos
Box (4 horses)
#12
/
#5
/
#4
/
#7
Top 4 horses, all 24 combos
$2 base $48
$1 base $24
$0.50 base $12
24 combos
Max coverage — best for competitive races
Straight
#12
→
#5
→
#4
→
#7
Top 4 in exact order
$1 base $1
$0.50 base $0.50
$0.10 base $0.10
1 combo
Max payout — top 4 in exact model order
Box (4 horses)
#12
/
#5
/
#4
/
#7
All 24 orders covered
$1 base $24
$0.50 base $12
$0.10 base $2.40
24 combos
Full top 4 coverage — high hit rate
Part Wheel
#12
→
#5
/
#4
→
#5
/
#4
/
#7
→
#5
/
#4
/
#7
/
#9
Key on top, spread in 2nd-4th — 8 combos
$1 base $8
$0.50 base $4
$0.10 base $0.80
8 combos
Key on top, open underneath — 8 combos
Get every pick on today's card
Model rankings, win probabilities and value alerts for Churchill Downs and every other track we cover.
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or
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Estimated Finishing Order
V1
Estimated order based on win probability & speed figures
Finishing Order — Expanded Model
V2
Top pick holds
12
7
of 12 re-ranked
▲5
3
biggest riser
Rank shift v1 → v2
V1
V2
1
12
2
5
3
4
4
7
5
9
6
1
7
3
8
11
9
6
10
2
11
8
12
10
12
Cybersteel
3
High Status
▲5
4
Kilmaloo
5
Clever Heist
▼2
9
Glacier
7
Uncle With Money
▼2
1
Enoughisenough
▼1
2
Camping Siete
▲2
11
Centricity
▼1
6
Reach for Glory
▼1
8
Lawson's Legacy
10
Grand Opry
What each model weighs
V1
Speed 45%
Factors 25%
Trend 15%
ML 10%
Pace 5%
V2
Speed 35%
Pace 15%
Trend 12%
Factors 10%
Class 10%
DSLR 8%
★ 5%
ML 5%
+ Class move 10%
+ Layoff (DSLR) 8%
+ Standout efforts 5%
Same horses, different question: v1 asks who is fastest, v2 asks who is fastest
in this race shape — so a horse can move several places without its speed figure changing.
Aces Edge predictions are generated by a mathematical model for informational purposes only.
This is not a bet recommendation. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.
Please gamble responsibly.
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